Abstract
Political violence remains a persistent challenge in Nigeria, undermining democratic governance, social cohesion, and national security. This study examines the effectiveness of conflict early warning systems (CEWS) in preventing political violence and explores the factors shaping the gap between early warning and early response. Drawing on event data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) covering the period 1997–2024, alongside a structured voter perception survey administered to 430 registered voters sampled proportionately across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, and key informant interviews with civil society leaders, duty-bearers, security actors, and community representatives across Nigeria, the study analyses institutional, technological, and participatory dimensions of early warning practise. The findings indicate that while Nigeria has made measurable progress in the capacity of CEWS to detect, monitor, analyse, and forecast political violence, its preventive impact remains constrained by weak institutional coordination, limited real-time data sharing, and insufficient integration of community-based early warning mechanisms. Situating CEWS within Nigeria’s recurrent patterns of political violence and broader peace education efforts, the paper advances an integrative, multisectoral framework that combines participatory early warning, technology-enabled analysis, and policy engagement to strengthen early response. The study contributes to debates on conflict prevention by demonstrating that improvements in early warning effectiveness depend less on data availability than on institutional cooperation, community trust, and the alignment of early warning systems with peacebuilding and governance processes.